A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
